The Cardinal Principles of Negotiation

1. Argue over interests, not positions.

2. Consider all options.

3. Use objective standards.

4. Be soft on the people but tough on the problem.

For a more detailed overview of these principles, click here.

Saudi Oil and Pirates

In November 2008, Somali pirates hijacked a supertanker hundreds of miles off the Horn of Africa, seizing the Saudi-owned ship loaded with crude oil.

Despite a number of military efforts to tackle the situation, systematic maritime piracy is growing. The lack of adequate legal instruments only exarcebates the problem.

It is fair to say that no significant international solution has been achieved. At domestic levels, countries have tried to create solutions in the best way possible.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia signed a major maritime code of conduct (the "Djibouti Code") that calls for a revision of national legislation to criminalize sea piracy.

The signing of this agreement is significant in view of the fact that the Kingdom is the world's main oil exporting country. Saudi Arabia's economy is essentially petroleum-based; roughly 75% of budget revenues and 90% of export earnings come from the oil industry. The oil industry comprises about 45% of Saudi Arabia's GDP.

95% of Saudi imports and exports pass through the Kingdom's seaports while sailing across the waters of different countries where pirates are active.

Although the Kingdom's move is to be welcomed, the wider duality of - uncoordinated - responses to piracy (domestic and international) is to be viewed with suspicion. The international nature of commerce requires a centralised and coordinated prophylactic solution to the problem - not mere scattered (and divergent) domestic criminal provisions.

The Code of Conduct only requires signatories to co-operate to the fullest possible extent in the repression of piracy and armed robbery against ships, with a view towards sharing and reporting relevant information through a system of national focal points and information centres. Each signatory intends to review its national legislation with a view towards ensuring that there are laws in place to criminalize piracy and armed robbery against ships, and adequate guidelines for the exercise of jurisdiction, conduct of investigations, and prosecutions of alleged offenders.

The Code retains some of the shortcomings of the UNCLOS definition of piracy.

The Code is a regional cooperation agreement. It appears to have no real teeth. Or if it does, it will experience many teething problems before it can ever bite.

We have dealt with maritime piracy from a bottom (domestic) up (international) approach. This method is clearly not working. What we really need is an authoritative top-down solution: the promulgation of an international treaty to be implemented in domestic legislatures. The Djibouti Code marks an important shift towards the right direction. But it lacks the strength needed to address a critical issue in international commerce.

Eike the Spartan and How to make $100 billion in 10 years

Following the crisis, the richest people in the world have probably gotten poorer, just like the rest of us. But they are by no means poor. Eike Batista is a Brazilian entrepreneur that made most of his fortune in the mining sector. Batista rose to the top 10 of Forbes magazine’s billionaires list this week for the first time as his fortune soared to $27 billion. In 2009, the magazine ranked him as the 61st richest man in the world. He is now ranked 8th. And the man intends to become the richest by making $100bn in the next 10 years. How? I'm not quite sure. And apologies if the title misled you to believe that I would set out a cunning plan on "how to make you
$100bn richer in the next 10 years."

But such performance by Batista illustrates Brazil's potential in the global arena. It sets a good precedent and works as a strong indicator of the country's growth in the years to come. However, Brazil must continue its investment in infrastructure, energy and education. It must also keep an eye on its interest rates. The upcoming presidential elections will provide the world with a political laboratory to study the resilience of the Brazilian markets, and above all, to test the core policies of the next president.

Once characterised as a sleeping giant, Brazil's horizon is now relatively clear. The global political "axis of power" has flipped. A new world economic order is emerging. What role will the US play in the novus modus operandi? I haven't formed an opinion yet, but Eike seems to have a pretty good answer: "[the US is] now heavily indebted like Brazil was before. [It has] to be a little bit more Spartan. In the last 20 years [the US] has focused too much on banking and finance. The best students went to banks or law firms. Where are the engineers?"

News Update: Strong Brazilian Performance - but Vale should be careful in China

On Vale in China:

• The Chinese steel company Hebei Iron and Steel Group has made a request to the Chinese Trade Department that Vale limit its distribution operations in some parts of the Chinese territory. No good for Vale.

On Brazilian Equity Firms:

• Buyout firms are poised to spend $9 billion in Brazil on everything from infrastructure to oil exploration as the economy recovers from a recession.

On Renova’s IPO:

• Renova Energia SA, a Brazilian renewable energy company, said it may raise as much as 867.9 million reais ($480 million) in an IPO.

On Brazil’s Trade Surplus:

• Brazil posted a $394 million trade surplus last month after a deficit in January as exports rose more than imports. This is good as it means that we’re selling more than we’re buying.

Emotional politics: An evolution of the political smile

A historical analysis of the political smile.

Starting with...

Oh yes we can...



OK maybe we can't afterall...



He thinks he can though..



OoOoOo rah! She thought she could.
But really she couldn't.



Oh dear! No comment.



Ooops wrong one. If only he was sober he probably could.


20 years later. Still not sober.



Oh the French. Thought they could so much that their President took it to the next level...and....


decided to beatbox on National television...and...


(wait let me clean my nose first)

...and had a go at the Robot dance:


(note the facial expression)

No, but really, politicians are a happy bunch, aren't they?


Genuinely happy.



Genuinely passionate.


Or maybe just truly demented.

But some are kind, and,


Some are truly Great,


Others you just don't want to mess with:

For they never smiled.

A smile is a facial expression formed by flexing those muscles most notably near both ends of the cheeks. It is customarily an expression denoting pleasure, happiness or amusement. Although the contents of this post are to be taken lightly, most recently, the smile has been used by politicans as part of their electoral armoury. Emotional politics - or the method by which politicians use their public display of emotion as a way of increasing their popularity - highlights the duality of a politician's role: to be a representative whilst being somewhat of an actor. But we must ask ourselves this: who do they act for, and most importantly, who do they represent?

Bleak winds from Greece: A summary of January 2010 (in Economic poetry)

A sleeping giant awakens, tomorrow,

When an old man is desperate to borrow.

A communist clears his throat and speaks,

Of European bleak winds from Greece.

Today's News Update: Petrobras may be most profitable oil company in world

On Petrobras’ financial results:

• Petrobras may have scored the best worldwide financial results (in terms of profit) for any oil company.

Source: http://portalexame.abril.com.br/negocios/petrobras-deve-ser-petroleira-maior-lucro-2009-534791.html

On Renuka buying Equipav:

• Renuka (Indian Company) has bought Equipav (a Brazilian sugar company) for $329m.

Source: http://portalexame.abril.com.br/mercados/noticias/renuka-compra-51-equipav-us-329-mi-acoes-sobem-534827.html

On Vale’s MOU for the Belo Monte hydroelectric plant :

• Vale signed an MOU with Andrade Gutierrez, Neoenergia Investimentos and Votorantim Energia to participate in the bidding process of the Belo Monte hydroelectric plant.

Source: http://portalexame.abril.com.br/negocios/vale-entra-consorcio-disputa-belo-monte-534853.html

On BOVESPA performance:

• The Bovespa stock index fell the most in more than two weeks as concern that Greece will struggle to pay its debt dragged down most commodity producers, overshadowing a rally in the nation’s biggest oil company.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=ah81wCRLpCLs

On Brazil Growth (by Goldman Sachs):

• Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brazilian growth to 6.4 percent for 2010 from 5.8 percent previously. This forecast may be revised again, to as high at 7 percent.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=arbYdpk2RTa8